Good news for millions of Americans living along the Gulf Coast, Atlantic seaboard, and Caribbean: forecasters are predicting a below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released its official forecast ahead of the June 1 season start, and the outlook is meaningfully better than recent years that produced historically destructive storms. Here is everything you need to know about what to expect this hurricane season and how to prepare regardless of the forecast.

WHAT NOAA'S 2026 FORECAST ACTUALLY SAYS

NOAA's 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast calls for fewer named storms than the historical average of 14, with a reduced probability of major hurricane landfalls compared to recent seasons. The primary driver of the below-average outlook is the developing La Niña pattern in the Pacific, which historically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity through increased wind shear that prevents storm development and intensification. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic also play a key role, and current readings are slightly cooler than the record-warm levels that contributed to recent destructive seasons.

WHY YOU SHOULD STILL PREPARE FULLY

A below-average season does not mean a safe season. It only takes one major hurricane making landfall to create catastrophic damage and loss of life. The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was below average — and Superstorm Sandy had already demonstrated in 2012 that season forecasts do not predict individual storm impacts. Emergency management professionals consistently emphasize that personal preparedness should not vary based on seasonal forecasts. Coastal and hurricane-prone residents should maintain a full emergency kit, know their evacuation routes, and have a family communication plan in place well before any storm threat develops.

HURRICANE PREP CHECKLIST FOR 2026

Build or refresh your emergency kit with at least 72 hours of supplies: water (one gallon per person per day), non-perishable food, medications, flashlights and batteries, a battery-powered radio, copies of important documents, and cash. Know your local evacuation zone and the routes out of it. Have a clear family reunification plan that accounts for scenarios where family members are in different locations. Sign up for your local emergency alert system. And if you live in a flood zone, review your flood insurance coverage before the season begins — flood damage is not covered by standard homeowners insurance and policies typically have a 30-day waiting period before coverage begins.