Every FIFA World Cup produces moments nobody saw coming. Germany 7–1 Brazil. South Korea reaching the semi-finals in 2002. Iceland holding Argentina. Saudi Arabia beating Argentina in 2022. Morocco eliminating Spain, Portugal, and reaching the semi-finals. The beautiful game constantly reminds us that football does not read the script. Here are the five biggest upsets we believe could happen at FIFA World Cup 2026 — and why each one is more realistic than you think.

Upset #1: Japan Eliminate Brazil in the Round of 16

Probability: Medium. Laughable? Hear us out. Japan beat Germany and Spain in the same group at Qatar 2022. They beat Germany again in the first match of the 2026 qualifying campaign. The Blue Samurai under Hajime Moriyasu play a high-pressing, extremely well-organised system that suffocates bigger teams and exploits transition moments ruthlessly. If Brazil face Japan in the Round of 16 — which the draw makes possible — and Neymar is not yet fully fit, and Vinicius Jr has an off night, Japan's defensive organisation and rapid counter-attacks could produce one of the great World Cup shocks. The numbers do not rule it out. Japan have done it before to teams just as big.

Upset #2: USA Reach the Semi-Finals on Home Soil

Probability: Low-medium but rising. The United States reaching the semi-finals would be the greatest achievement in American football history and would send the host nation into absolute delirium. Under Pochettino, the USMNT have improved tactically and in terms of squad depth. Pulisic, Balogun, McKennie, Tyler Adams — this is a genuinely competitive international squad. Playing in front of home crowds of 70,000–80,000 passionate American fans provides a tangible advantage. South Korea did it in 2002 on home soil, beating Spain and Germany along the way. Home advantage at the World Cup is real and powerful. Do not dismiss the USA.

Upset #3: Morocco Eliminate France in the Quarter-Finals

Probability: Medium. Morocco knocked out Spain and Portugal in Qatar 2022 and only a brave and clinical France team ended their run in the semi-finals. The two nations have unfinished business. Morocco under their new coach have maintained their defensive organisation while adding more attacking quality through Brahim Díaz and a more dynamic press. France are the favourites — but they have fragile moments against organised, physically imposing teams. If Morocco repeat their Qatar blueprint — sitting deep, absorbing pressure, hitting on the counter — and if Hakimi has the game of his life at right back, a Morocco quarter-final victory over France is genuinely possible.

Upset #4: Argentina Eliminated in the Group Stage

Probability: Low but not impossible. Argentina have suffered shocking group stage exits before — they finished bottom of their group at the 1958 and 2002 World Cups. The risk in 2026 is unique: Messi is 38, the tournament pressure of defending champions is enormous, and Canada on home soil in Vancouver will be an extremely hostile and passionate environment. If Messi picks up even a minor knock in the opening match and Argentina lose their first game, panic can set in very quickly. History says this is unlikely — but it is the single most dramatic possible storyline of the tournament. Imagine the headlines.

Upset #5: Ecuador Reach the Quarter-Finals

Probability: Medium. Ecuador are criminally underrated going into this tournament. They finished fourth in CONMEBOL qualifying — ahead of Uruguay and Colombia at various stages — with a young, athletic, and fearless squad. Enner Valencia leads the line with the experience of three World Cup campaigns. Behind him, Kendry Páez at just 18 is one of the most exciting teenagers in world football. Ecuador are drawn in a manageable group and could realistically reach the Round of 16. If they get there, anything is possible. They are the pick of the genuine dark horses to make a deep run and shock a tournament giant along the way.

The beauty of the World Cup is that none of us truly know what will happen when the whistle blows on June 11. The greatest moments in this tournament's history were the ones nobody predicted. From Cameroon beating Argentina in 1990 to Denmark winning the Euros in 1992 to Greece winning Euro 2004 — sport constantly defies logic. Expect the unexpected, embrace the drama, and follow Roseson Studios as we cover every shock, every surprise, and every jaw-dropping moment of FIFA World Cup 2026!